Chapter 02 · Climate

The narrow comfort zone

Arabica coffee thrives between roughly 64–70°F. Rainfall and temperature changes are reshaping where coffee can grow — and the world's leading origins are feeling it first.

Rainfall by country

Average annual precipitation (ERA5-Land, mm/yr)

Climate stress for coffee

Departure from optimal arabica range (18–21°C)

Optimal Marginal Too warm

Rainfall over time — top 5 producers

Annual precipitation, 2000–2024

Temperature over time — top 5 producers

Average annual temperature (°C)

More producing regions are alarmingly drifting outside the optimal coffee range. With these rainfall and temperature shifts, coffee production is now at risk.